mortgages

http://www.mortgage-finance.name
.
.
.
.
.
Do not expect the relief rally to be sustainable. mortgages debt consolidation Falling equity markets continue to push investors towards Government Debt. But, they remain worried by the direction of future prices. This week we saw the black stuff rally aggressively on the back of the Citigroup package bailout proposed by the US government.

Despite it being a robust headline, one should be weary on a number of fronts. Remember that businesses are spending less, housing is in trouble and commodity price declines are affecting export numbers. Reports show that OPEC members are adhering to quotas that were agreed on last month. Thus, this has prompted investors to hedge by buying longer dated product. Other data sho that US consumer confidence rebounded this month ( 44.9 vs. mortgages The erosion of future demand continues to be a big question mark for global economies. Employment data will of course be the key short term, the trend is expected once again pick up momentum again this month. On the back boiler we have OPEC, who remains concerned that oil prices continue to flounder around the 20-month low.

A dramatic decline in gas prices also provided some support to confidence as consumers were given needed breathing room. The Nikkei closed 8,213 down home mortgage refinance -110. Over the weekend PM Harper has already indicated that the government would run a short term deficit to stimulate the economy. The long end of the US yield curve managed to rally after the Fed announced that they plan to purchase mortgage securities to ease credit concerns in the market again.

So far Bernanke and Paulson actions have been reactionary and not proactive. Speculation that the recession will further curb demand will push prices lower. Currently with the erosion of personal home mortgage refinance rates wealth, the trend for the medium term remains intact ..much lower The US$ currently is higher against the EUR -0.49%, GBP -0.56%, CHF -0.56% and lower against JPY 0.26%.

An unexpected rise in retail sales boosted the loonie and left footed all Bay Street analysts. Finally, and no big surprise the S&P/Case-Shiller Price index fell at a faster marvin than expected for Sept. (fastest harlan since mortgage loan process last Feb.) as the 20-city index for house prices fell -1.85% m/m (-17.44% y/y) as sellers continue to reduce prices to entice homeowners back into the market. The Richmond Fed was not as optimistic as the index plummeted to -38, a new record low, as new orders, shipments, capacity utilization, employment and average workweek all declined further. But, employment remains negative. Wages improved slightly and prices paid also improved, rising at a more moderate louis of 1.5% although prices received declined -1.1%. The rise was driven by a surge in domestic auto sales ( 2.9%, m/m), higher home mortgage finance rates food prices, and still high historical gas prices 2-months ago. But, so far it has not been sustainable as traders bevin for the numbers later this morning.

Investors continue to eye commodity prices for direction. Initial reaction to the $800b fed bail out had the AUD better bid in the O/N session. The growth in total sales ( 1.1%) nearly tripled estimates, while growth in core-sales (ex-autos, 0.8%) quadrupled consensus predictions. We should be concerned about the pre-holiday months as concerns grew exponentially since last month. One should expect to see some sort of reversal next month as the unemployment rate is expected to tick up and the housing market to deteriorate even further. To date $7trillion has been committed and the hole mortgage quotes keeps getting bigger The US$ is stronger in the O/N trading session.

The government action had boosted investor confidence; coupled with a weaker USD, it managed to improve the appeal of commodities across the board. They are not sure if there is too much product on the market or that liquidity is drying up. Looking ahead 6-months, respondents see an improvement in business activity mortgage loans as shipments, new order volumes, average workweek and capacity utilization numbers all elmira. They took new and bolder steps to unfreeze credit for homebuyers, consumers and small businesses. But, coupled with the Citigroup bailout , risk aversion strategies continue, as uncertainty and fear dominate. They are committing another $800b, by way of purchasing $600b in mortgage securities and earmarking $200b to support loans for the consumer and smaller businesses.

All this has occurred on the back of the credit crunch, the plummeting housing market and mounting job losses causing consumers and businesses to tighten their belts even further. Ing deeper one noticed that sales in volume terms also climbed by 0.7%, which suggests that this was not all about price. This has the giffy marks of a much deeper recession than previously expected. Crude is higher O/N ($51.29 up 52c). It is very much a given that OPEC will cut output again, the announcement of the timing is the issue. 38) as President Elect Obama was finally voted into office after a year and a half of campaigning. Governor Rees last week said that the risks to the country economy from a global credit crisis and recession have increased in the last month and will probably lead to a further reduction in interest rates.

Also saw a slight upward revision to 38.8, but still at a record low. The 10-year Treasury yields eased 12bp (3.10%) and another 8bp in the O/N session (3.02%). The commodity currencies are mixed this morning, CAD 0.24% and AUD -0.19%. Some key sales components fell (computers, home electronics, appliances etc) and this report is two months old. Crude pared some of this week advance as traders speculated that the weekly EIA report will show that inventories drusy again for a 9th consecutive week as demand declined. Consumer spending, which accounts for 2/3rd of the economy, fell to a revised -3.7% annual rate. Fear is destroying future demand at the moment. The DAX index in Europe was at 4,532 down -28; the FTSE (UK) currently is 4,124 down -47.

Gold has had a healthy rally of late; this commodity will provide support for the currency in the longer term. For now traders continue to be better sellers on rallies (0.6491). Further stimulus packages announced by Asian governments also managed to lend a helping hand. US GDP fell -0.5% for the 3rd Q, deeper than analysts initially estimated and the most since the tech recession of 2001.

With Gold advancing 12% over the past week, technical indicators had some traders booking profits and selling some of the yellow metal positions ($819). This managed temporarily to remove some uncertainty from the US consumer. With the Fed wanting to spend $600b on mortgage securities, this action will take duration (the sensitivity of the underlying asset price to interest rates movements, expressed as a number of years) out of the market. This has caused investors to seek Government debt to hedge against their personal losses. According to Venezuela oil minister, Ramirez earlier this week, deterioration in global demand has left a surplus of about 1m barrels a day over supply that needs to be removed by year end. The Fed once again is attempting to stay ahead of the curve.

To date, crude prices are down 63% from their summer highs and down 42% y/y. Traders have priced in another 50bp ease next month, this will push borrowing costs below the psychological 2% mark as further monetary stimulus will be required to achieve the banks 2% inflation target over the medium term (2.25%). Currently it is higher against 13 of the 16 most actively traded currencies, in another whippy trading range. But, with Obama not set to take office until late Jan. Crude accounts for approximately 10% of all of Canada export revenues. After fast paced and somewhat exaggerated move, expect traders to be better buyers on USD pull backs.

The early call for the open of key US indices is lower. The monthly demand last week was down -7%, y/y. The members will meet in Cairo this weekend; last month they set quotas to 30.98m barrels a day for this month compared with 32.2m a day in Oct. Already this week Obama has warned that the US faces millions of job losses, unless a concrete stimulus package is put in place before he commands office in late Jan.

The black stuffs prices continue to trade close to its 20-month low.